1922年底,德国政府被迫要求协约国暂停赔款支付;这被拒绝了,于是她对运往法国的煤炭和木材违约。第二年1月,法国和比利时军队进入并占领了鲁尔。德国人民,也许是自1914年以来第一次,团结在他们的政府背后,对占领军进行消极抵抗。一场由政府资助的罢工开始了,数千名工人从他们的工厂和钢铁厂游行出来。已经承受巨大压力的德国经济最终屈服了。资助鲁尔区罢工的巨额费用和满足消费者基本需求的进口费用,都由印刷机这种常见的权宜之计来满足。纸币发行量迅速增长,到1923年11月已达到近92万亿马克。只有不到百分之三的政府开支是由财政收入来支付的,而每一美元的成本是40亿马克,德国正处于经济和社会混乱的阵痛之中。尽管谷物大丰收,但由于商店恢复了以物易物的交易系统,数百万人的饥饿成为了现实。农民拒绝接受实际上毫无价值的纸币来换取粮食,城市里的粮食很快就开始短缺。 Prices rose one trillion-fold from their pre-war level. More importantly, for the long-term political future of Germany, the middle and working classes saw their savings wiped out. These were, in essence, the people who were later to become the hard-core of the Nazi vote. Economists will argue that runaway hyperinflation has two sources. Firstly, it arises through a fall in the foreign exchange value of a currency, when an adverse balance of payments reduces foreign investors demand for the currency. A falling exchange rate increases the cost of imports and, therefore, the cost of living. Wages rise as workers try to maintain their standard of living, especially if previous institutional arrangements have linked wages to living costs. Firms paying higher wages raise the price of the goods they sell, prices rise still further, the foreign exchange value of the currency falls still more, and the cycle continues.

其次,它是由巨大的预算赤字引起的,没有人认为这一赤字在未来会缩小。面对预算赤字的前景在未来的许多年里,政府可获得的通常信贷来源将减少发放更多贷款;政府不能再借钱来弥补收支之间的赤字。唯一的选择就是印越来越多的钞票。当政府工作人员和供应商向财政部提交账单时,财政部会用新印制的纸来偿还。这就把更多的钞票放到了公众手中,然后他们花掉它们。在德国,正如我们看到的,问题是有价值数万亿马克的纸币在流通。从一个工人拿到工资到他去商店,价格可能会上涨1000倍。一个常见的类比是,如果一个人今天买得起一瓶酒,他就应该保留空瓶,因为空瓶明天会比满瓶今天更值钱。最终,通过印钞来刺激政府支出的力量消失了。当政府不能再通过通货膨胀获得预算平衡(即使是在短期内)时,情况就会变得如此紧张,以至于通过货币委员会、新财政部长或与金本位挂钩来实现稳定,改革就可能成功。 It was at this point that some sanity was injected into the German economy by the election of Gustav Stresemann. He called a halt to resistance in the Ruhr, and set out to stabilize the mark. Luther, Stresemann’s Finance Minister, introduced the rentenmark the value of which was based on Germany’s staple, rye, rather than gold. In fact the rentenmark represented a mortgage on Germanys land and industry, which could never be redeemed. It did not matter.

读:
《约翰·冈瑟之死不容骄傲:总结与分析》

重点是货币被稳定,并以十亿岁的速度交易到一个新标记,并在战前阶段为4.2分钟到美元。人口迅速接受新货币,食品和消费品开始出现在商店。政府现在可以试图在低通货膨胀的气氛中重获预算控制。Dawes计划被斡旋,大约390亿美元的总和借给了以下五年的德国。然而,这种新的经济繁荣在外国投资的基础上,因此德国的命运现在有效地掌握在华尔街手中。伟大通胀对德国的后果很多折叠,毫无疑问,在政治上,看到了远离法西斯主义的第一个警告迹象。在1924年5月的选举中,纳粹和共产党都以牺牲该中心为代价提出了收益。共和国人民的信仰受到严重打击。作为先进者指出:这种社会的标准和做法是什么,这鼓励储蓄和投资,并庄严地承诺从他们那里安全回报,然后违约?这不是人民的欺诈吗? And was not the democratic Republic, which had surrendered to the enemy and accepted the burden of reparations, to blame for the disaster.

在恶性通货膨胀期间,德国上层中产阶级的储蓄被抹去了。这些储蓄通常投资于债券和银行账户,因此马克实际价值的崩溃也伴随着债券价值的崩溃。债务人受益匪浅,因为他们的债务实际上被一笔勾销了。德国中上阶层中规模相对较小、财务上不成熟的储户一无所有。这可能是德国20世纪20年代早期恶性通胀最重要的方面。那些不富裕但生活舒适的人,他们是社区的中坚力量,在中年,他们生活得很好,存了足够的钱过上舒适的生活,他们是相对民主、相对自由的政府的最有力支持者。在吸取了大通货膨胀的教训后,这些人还记得1923年马克第二次崩溃的情景。这些人是数百万投票给纳粹党的人。那么,大通货膨胀的原因也许并不是凡尔赛条约的赔款条款,这些条款通常被指责为德国弊病的罪魁祸首。德国在战争期间的金融行为无疑为1921年的灾难埋下了祸根。 The failure of her Republican governments to act, by implementing austerity measures, through a fear of their own weakness of position, led to the inflationary printing of more paper money. The reparations clauses were clearly side- stepped by the very same governments who pleaded they did not have the means to pay. This suited the government, and also Germany’s industrialists and landowners who profited immensely from inflation. Avoidance of reparations, in fact, became more important than the welfare of the German people. The Republic was built on weakness: the idea that the fledgling Republic had stabbed Germany in the back by surrendering was widespread, and therefore led to the perceived necessity of avoiding reparations. This policy was doomed to failure, particularly in the face of French belligerence. More short-sightedness was to blame for the passive resistance in the Ruhr. Whilst clearly wishing to prevent German production from falling into French hands, it is clear that the government could not afford to finance the resistance for long and, as we have seen, this was the proverbial straw which broke the camel’s back. There were, of course, external influences: the manipulation of the mark by foreign speculators was a side effect, as was Allied insistence on reparations.

读:
丹尼尔·莱文森的《男人的季节:总结与分析》

然而,这些只是对主要事件的侧面展示。通货膨胀的错误牢固地掌握在政府手中。就通货膨胀的后果而言,未来的路标已经到位。很明显,相对小康的中产阶级和上层中产阶级对中心民主除外的任何事情都几乎没有兴趣。The swing towards extremism in 1924 was an indicator of what was to come in 1930. This is demonstrated by the gains made by the Nazis and Communists in May 1924, but also reflected in their poor performances in the golden years’ of late-1924 to 1928. Following the second collapse of the mark in 1929, both these parties made huge gains at the expense of the centre. Voters do have memories, and those memories of two financial disasters in less than a decade were extremely strong. Finally, the fate of Germany, which since 1918 had been held in the hands of foreign governments, was essentially transferred into the hands of international financial institutions. The same people who structured the loans which helped to end the Great Inflation were the very same as those who speculated Germany – and, to be fair, the rest of the world – into the financial collapse of 1929. Germany, kept militarily weak by the allies, financially weak by her government and her industrialists was waiting in the wings for her moment to come. When that moment came, the twenty year truce was ended by Adolf Hitler. That is perhaps the most damning indictment of both Republican mismanagement and world indecision that can be made.

引用这篇文章如下:威廉·安德森(学校工作助手编辑团队),《德国大通货膨胀:总结与分析》,在SchoolWorkHelper, 2019,//www.chadjarvis.com/the-german-great-inflation-summary-analysis/

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